Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Marseille
OM
Nice
NIC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille57%
Draw21%
Nice22%
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession50%
45%Territory34%
35%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.1%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Nice. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.