Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Marseille
OM
Nice
NIC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille59%
Draw22%
Nice19%
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.13
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nice get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession61%
47%Territory39%
7%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.6%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Nice. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.