Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Lille
LIL
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille59%
Draw24%
Auxerre17%
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.92
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.3%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Auxerre get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession42%
31%Territory43%
4%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.6%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.