Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Lille
LIL
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille59%
Draw25%
Auxerre16%
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.82
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.1%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lille get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession48%
36%Territory42%
36%From set plays16%
0.14Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.