Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Lens
RCL
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens62%
Draw22%
Le Havre17%
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.00
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.3%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession48%
38%Territory39%
23%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Havre
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.