Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Toulouse
TFC
Rennes
REN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse47%
Draw24%
Rennes29%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.42
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession49%
39%Territory36%
4%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.18
3.0%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Rennes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.