Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Lorient
LOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG59%
Draw25%
Lorient16%
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.82
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.1%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
71%Possession47%
48%Territory36%
16%From set plays42%
0.16Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PSG, 2 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lorient
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.