Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Lyon
OL
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon48%
Draw27%
Monaco25%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.04
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Monaco will have the ball; Lyon will not mind.
48%Possession59%
40%Territory49%
24%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.07
2.8%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.