Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Lyon
OL
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon49%
Draw26%
Monaco25%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.12
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lyon will have the ball; Monaco will not mind.
55%Possession41%
38%Territory42%
22%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.3%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.