Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Le Mans
LEM
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Mans29%
Draw25%
Lille46%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.71
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession45%
29%Territory31%
6%From set plays4%
0.21Chance quality0.13
7.4%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Mans, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.