Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Le Mans
LEM
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Mans20%
Draw27%
Lille53%
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.51
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.8%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession55%
30%Territory36%
47%From set plays36%
0.09Chance quality0.14
4.8%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Mans, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Mans
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.