Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Le Havre
LEH
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre31%
Draw24%
Strasbourg45%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.87
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.8%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession48%
38%Territory35%
25%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.2%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.