Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Le Havre
LEH
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre32%
Draw26%
Strasbourg42%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.56
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession51%
39%Territory36%
21%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.12
7.3%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Havre
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.