Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Auxerre
AUX
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre31%
Draw25%
Marseille43%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.67
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille will have the ball; Auxerre will not mind.
42%Possession59%
43%Territory47%
25%From set plays7%
0.11Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.