Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
Auxerre
AUX
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre33%
Draw24%
Marseille43%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.77
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession52%
42%Territory45%
16%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.