Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Strasbourg
STR
Brest
BRS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg48%
Draw23%
Brest29%
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.8%
- 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brest get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession45%
36%Territory35%
10%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.11
4.2%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Brest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.