Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Nice
NIC
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nice16%
Draw22%
PSG62%
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.97
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.5%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession67%
39%Territory46%
26%From set plays25%
0.09Chance quality0.08
3.9%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nice, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.