Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Monaco
MON
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monaco56%
Draw24%
Auxerre20%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.07
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession42%
42%Territory43%
16%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.2%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monaco, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.