Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Marseille
OM
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille63%
Draw20%
Le Mans17%
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.12
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
45%Territory30%
35%From set plays47%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.1%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Mans
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.