Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Marseille
OM
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille55%
Draw21%
Le Mans24%
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.44
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille will have the ball; Le Mans will not mind.
59%Possession43%
47%Territory29%
7%From set plays6%
0.10Chance quality0.21
3.6%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.