Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Lille
LIL
Lyon
OL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille42%
Draw31%
Lyon27%
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.96
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession48%
36%Territory40%
36%From set plays24%
0.14Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.