Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Lens
RCL
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens44%
Draw29%
Toulouse27%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.02
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession55%
29%Territory39%
12%From set plays4%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.