Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Lens
RCL
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens55%
Draw22%
Toulouse23%
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.29
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession54%
38%Territory43%
23%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.15
4.3%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.