Ligue 1 · Matchweek 10
Lens
RCL
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens55%
Draw21%
Marseille24%
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.48
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
69%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–06.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lens get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession59%
38%Territory47%
23%From set plays7%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.