Ligue 1 · Matchweek 10
Lens
RCL
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens51%
Draw24%
Marseille25%
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.31
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession52%
29%Territory45%
12%From set plays35%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.