Ligue 1 · Matchweek 10
Toulouse
TFC
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse46%
Draw27%
Strasbourg27%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.17
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Strasbourg get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession48%
39%Territory35%
4%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.10
3.0%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.