Ligue 1 · Matchweek 10
Toulouse
TFC
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse42%
Draw25%
Strasbourg34%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.56
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession51%
43%Territory36%
20%From set plays10%
0.15Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.