Ligue 1 · Matchweek 10
Brest
BRS
Lyon
OL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brest34%
Draw29%
Lyon37%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.29
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession48%
28%Territory40%
13%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.13
7.1%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brest, 3 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.