Ligue 1 · Matchweek 10
Auxerre
AUX
Paris FC
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre29%
Draw27%
Paris FC43%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Auxerre get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
42%Possession47%
43%Territory32%
25%From set plays8%
0.11Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Paris FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.