Ligue 1 · Matchweek 9
Troyes
TRO
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Troyes40%
Draw24%
Le Mans36%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.65
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Troyes get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
38%Possession43%
46%Territory29%
40%From set plays6%
0.12Chance quality0.21
6.7%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.