Ligue 1 · Matchweek 9
Paris FC
PAR
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC43%
Draw26%
Monaco31%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.33
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession41%
32%Territory42%
8%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.12
3.2%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.