Ligue 1 · Matchweek 9
Marseille
OM
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille46%
Draw24%
Toulouse30%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.43
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession54%
47%Territory43%
7%From set plays20%
0.10Chance quality0.15
3.6%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.