Ligue 1 · Matchweek 9
Lorient
LOR
Brest
BRS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lorient43%
Draw30%
Brest26%
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.94
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession42%
36%Territory24%
42%From set plays20%
0.13Chance quality0.14
3.5%Directness7.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lorient, 2 for Brest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lorient
Brest
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.