Ligue 1 · Matchweek 9
Lille
LIL
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille41%
Draw25%
Lens33%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.46
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lens get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession51%
31%Territory38%
4%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.6%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.