Ligue 1 · Matchweek 8
Monaco
MON
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monaco38%
Draw27%
Lille35%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.38
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession45%
42%Territory31%
16%From set plays4%
0.12Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monaco, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.