Ligue 1 · Matchweek 8
Marseille
OM
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille54%
Draw24%
Le Havre22%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.11
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–06.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille will have the ball; Le Havre will not mind.
59%Possession48%
47%Territory39%
7%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.6%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.