Ligue 1 · Matchweek 8
Lens
RCL
Paris FC
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens51%
Draw23%
Paris FC25%
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.33
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lens get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession47%
38%Territory32%
23%From set plays8%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Paris FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.