Ligue 1 · Matchweek 8
Auxerre
AUX
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre40%
Draw26%
Le Mans34%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.46
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Auxerre get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
42%Possession43%
43%Territory29%
25%From set plays6%
0.11Chance quality0.21
6.2%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.