Ligue 1 · Matchweek 7
Lyon
OL
Nice
NIC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon64%
Draw22%
Nice14%
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.82
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.0%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession61%
38%Territory39%
22%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.3%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Nice. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.