Ligue 1 · Matchweek 7
Le Havre
LEH
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre42%
Draw29%
Auxerre29%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.08
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession42%
39%Territory43%
21%From set plays25%
0.09Chance quality0.11
7.3%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Havre
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.