Ligue 1 · Matchweek 6
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG71%
Draw17%
Le Mans12%
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.99
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 3–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Le Mans will not mind.
67%Possession43%
46%Territory29%
25%From set plays6%
0.08Chance quality0.21
5.4%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PSG, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.