Ligue 1 · Matchweek 6
Monaco
MON
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monaco46%
Draw25%
Toulouse29%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.30
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toulouse will have the ball; Monaco will not mind.
41%Possession54%
42%Territory43%
16%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.15
6.2%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monaco, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.