Ligue 1 · Matchweek 6
Lorient
LOR
Paris FC
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lorient35%
Draw28%
Paris FC37%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.37
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession47%
33%Territory32%
5%From set plays8%
0.12Chance quality0.13
5.7%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lorient, 3 for Paris FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.