Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Ligue 1 · Matchweek 6

Lille

LIL

Le Havre

LEH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lille56%
Draw25%
Le Havre18%

Expected goals

1.67 – 0.86

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.8%
  • 1–111.4%
  • 2–010.8%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Le Havre get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession48%
31%Territory39%
4%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.09
4.6%Directness7.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.