Ligue 1 · Matchweek 6
Lens
RCL
Lyon
OL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens43%
Draw26%
Lyon31%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.38
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession55%
38%Territory38%
23%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.12
4.3%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.