Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Marseille
OM
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille27%
Draw24%
PSG49%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.86
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Marseille will not mind.
59%Possession67%
47%Territory46%
7%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.08
3.6%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.