Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Toulouse
TFC
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse50%
Draw27%
Le Havre23%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.02
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession48%
43%Territory39%
20%From set plays21%
0.15Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Le Havre
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.