Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Paris FC
PAR
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC45%
Draw24%
Strasbourg30%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.47
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession51%
32%Territory36%
8%From set plays10%
0.13Chance quality0.12
3.2%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.