Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Lyon
OL
Rennes
REN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon52%
Draw24%
Rennes24%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.23
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession56%
38%Territory46%
22%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.3%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Rennes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.