Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Le Mans
LEM
Lorient
LOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Mans40%
Draw26%
Lorient34%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.47
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession50%
29%Territory33%
6%From set plays5%
0.21Chance quality0.12
7.4%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Mans, 3 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.