Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Auxerre
AUX
Brest
BRS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre33%
Draw27%
Brest40%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.51
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession45%
43%Territory35%
25%From set plays33%
0.11Chance quality0.11
6.2%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Brest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.