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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 24

Nottingham Forest

NFO

Brentford

BRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Nottm Forest40%
Draw29%
Brentford31%

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.14

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.0%
  • 1–011.6%
  • 0–19.9%
  • 0–09.9%
  • 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession47%
34%Territory35%
30%From set plays27%
0.09Chance quality0.09
7.8%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nottm Forest, 3 for Brentford. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.