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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 24

Manchester United

MUN

Chelsea

CHE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Man United31%
Draw24%
Chelsea45%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.78

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.4%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 0–17.5%
  • 2–17.2%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession47%
39%Territory35%
18%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness3.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.