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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 24

Leeds United

LEE

AFC Bournemouth

AFC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Leeds29%
Draw27%
Bournemouth44%

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.49

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 0–110.8%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Leeds get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession49%
34%Territory39%
42%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.16
6.2%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leeds, 3 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.