Premier League · Matchweek 24
Everton
EVE
Newcastle United
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Everton32%
Draw28%
Newcastle40%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.38
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession55%
43%Territory46%
35%From set plays16%
0.07Chance quality0.09
5.9%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Everton, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Everton
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.