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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 24

Arsenal

ARS

Liverpool

LIV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arsenal54%
Draw27%
Liverpool18%

Expected goals

1.52 – 0.79

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

44%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–015.5%
  • 1–111.9%
  • 2–011.0%
  • 0–010.9%
  • 2–19.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal will have the ball; Liverpool will not mind.

59%Possession51%
48%Territory48%
36%From set plays16%
0.11Chance quality0.08
3.8%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Liverpool. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.