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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 23

Manchester City

MCI

Arsenal

ARS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Man City36%
Draw29%
Arsenal35%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.24

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 1–010.6%
  • 0–110.2%
  • 0–09.4%
  • 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

65%Possession59%
49%Territory48%
20%From set plays36%
0.12Chance quality0.11
3.5%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.