Premier League · Matchweek 23
Chelsea
CHE
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chelsea50%
Draw26%
Nottm Forest24%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.05
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession45%
35%Territory34%
16%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.6%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.