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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 23

Brentford

BRE

Manchester United

MUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Brentford49%
Draw25%
Man United26%

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.28

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 2–07.2%
  • 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession48%
35%Territory39%
27%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.08
6.4%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brentford, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.