Premier League · Matchweek 23
Aston Villa
AVL
Ipswich Town
IPS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa53%
Draw24%
Ipswich24%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.23
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession47%
32%Territory35%
22%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Ipswich. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.